Keep a hopeful story, a sharp number, and skill in different lines.
The Bocconi record of Camuffo and colleagues describes training in a scientific habit across four trials and 759 firms, with a positive impact on terminating an idea. It is about that training. It is not a personality test and not a profit guarantee.
Kraft, Günther, Kammerlander, and Lampe published a 2022 meta-analysis on types of overconfidence in the entrepreneurial process. The journal page blocked an automated check, so this site does not restate effect sizes. A separate meta-analysis of CEO overconfidence and firm performance returned 403 and is not used. Founder studies and CEO studies are different literatures. Do not collapse them, and do not read either unread paper as a rule that confidence helps or hurts.
The log asks for the forecast, the confidence you would state out loud, the evidence that would move it, and the date you will compare it with what happened. Optimism, a number that looks more precise than the evidence, and competence stay in separate sentences.
Question. How should you record forecasts and revisit confidence without confusing optimism, precision, and competence?
The Bocconi record of the paper describes four randomised trials and 759 firms. It reports a positive impact on idea termination, and that treated firms tended to run a few pivots rather than none or repeated pivots. The abstract on the cited page does not state a percentage-point figure, so this site does not either.
Volume 37, issue 4, article 106207. The ScienceDirect page blocked an automated check. A RePEc record returned the title, the authors, the journal, and the DOI 10.1016/j.jbusvent.2022.106207. The full text was not open, so this site does not restate effect sizes.