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Topic map / Customers and the work

Judgment, prioritization and learning

Substantial

12 questions

The Bocconi record of the Camuffo trials reports a positive impact on idea termination, and that treated firms tended to run a few pivots rather than none or repeated pivots. Lavingia writes that a billion-dollar goal had been a terrible goal. Use them as questions about evidence, not as a personality test.

  1. 1.What evidence would change your mind this month?

    Pass 2 · strengthened

    Write the assumption and the observation that would move it. A training study is about its own setting. It is not a guarantee.

  2. 2.What did you predict, in writing, and what did you observe?

  3. 3.Are you continuing because of new evidence, or because of what you have already spent?

  4. 4.What stopping rule is written down before the next quarter starts?

    Pass 2 · strengthened

    Write persist, pivot, pause, and stop as separate options. A study of pivots does not say every company should pivot sooner.

  5. 5.Who around you is paid, or praised, for agreeing with you?

    Pass 2 · strengthened

    Ask what the speaker is paid to want, and how narrow they say their own advice is.

  6. 6.What did a customer do, as distinct from what they said?

  7. 7.Which number are you watching because it flatters the plan?

    Pass 2 · strengthened

    Separate a hopeful story, a number that looks more precise than the evidence, and skill. Founder studies and CEO studies are different literatures. This site does not collapse them.

  8. 8.What is the smallest test you could run in the next two weeks?

  9. 9.What did the last quarter teach you that the current plan ignores?

  10. 10.If you are wrong, what is the smallest step you can still reverse?

  11. 11.How should you record forecasts and revisit confidence without confusing optimism, precision, and competence?

    Pass 2 · new

    Write the estimate, the range, and the date you will look again. A feeling of certainty is not a third number.

    Forecasts and confidence

  12. 12.How do you rehearse a deadline-pressure decision before a counterparty controls the timetable?

    Pass 2 · new

    A date in a message is not a date in the document. Write the pause before the call.

    Rehearse the deadline

Sources

  • Research2024

    A scientific approach to entrepreneurial decision-making: large-scale replication and extension · Camuffo, Gambardella, Messinese, Novelli, Paolucci and Spina, Strategic Management Journal

    The Bocconi record of the paper describes four randomised trials and 759 firms. It reports a positive impact on idea termination, and that treated firms tended to run a few pivots rather than none or repeated pivots. The abstract on the cited page does not state a percentage-point figure, so this site does not either.

  • Community7 February 2019

    Reflecting on my failure to build a billion-dollar company · Sahil Lavingia

    Lavingia writes that he laid off 75 percent of Gumroad, shrinking the company from 20 people to 5, and that a billion-dollar goal had been a terrible goal. One founder’s account. It is not a rule for your company.

  • PractitionerChecked 14 October 2026

    Giving Voice to Values · Ethics Unwrapped, University of Texas at Austin

    A series associated with Mary Gentile. It treats speaking up as a practice that can be scripted and rehearsed. It is an educational series, not a UAE rule.

  • PractitionerLast reviewed 23 January 2022

    Negotiating term sheets: focus on what’s important · Cooley GO, Matthew Bartus

    A law firm’s overview of valuation and the option pool, liquidation preferences, the board, protective provisions, and exclusivity. It is a US-oriented practitioner note, not a UAE opinion.